Service Plays Sunday 10/31/10

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

The Rx.com Mod Team has created this Service Play sub-forum in order to supply an area for Rx Service Play Posters to expand upon their posting topics without creating a logjam in the main forum where the three principle threads are maintained..

Posters can track services here if they care to but we will need any trackers to do so in an accurate and civil manner. We did not create this area for posters to ridicule or bash any services..

You can also discuss who is hot and who is not. The general state of the pay for plays industry and any other subject or topic related to service plays.

You can also create individual threads about specific services and discuss them freely but civilly. Again bashing and abusive treatment of any services will not be tolerated.

Please remember, this forum is not here for regular posters who cap their own games to post ther daily plays. Please use our individual sport forums to post your plays. Professional cappers (those that sell plays) must remain in the Site Promotion Forum.

The Rx.com will not tolerate posters that post false records of any services they track. Please be truthful if you decide to track a particular service.

Lastly The Rx Moderators are appealing to you our everyday posters to report any promotional threads or posts that are made by services or individual touts. No links or contact information to an individual service will be allowed. Just the name of the service. Please report any threads or posts that are promotional attempts by services and touts to use this forum to promote themselves..

Posters can easily report a promotional post by using the triangular Report-a-Post Icon at the bottom left of all post boxes. The poster name of any poster who reports a post that is out of line will be kept strictly confidential.

I will leave this thread open for a month to take questions and do my best to answer them. I will check in daily but am off on Wednesday and Thursday.

I hope this additional Service Play Forum will satisfy those posters that would like to widen the scope of topics relating to service plays and the industry in general to have their own threads. Mods will be liberal as possible regarding topics but this forum was specifically created to allow you more freedom to express your ideas regarding service plays and related subject matter. No off topic threads will be allowed.

Thank you, wilheim




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Some handicappers do not mind having their plays posted, If we are asked by any company to not let their information be posted here, we will comply with the request and remove the information if we see it.
For The Record.
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To all services and professional handicappers. I am only going to be editing posts where your copyrighted write-ups are involved. Please do not email me if someone simply posts so and so likes xyz team plus or minus so many points only.
Thank you, wilheim.......

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****Please note we can post ONLY Picks for the services above - NO WRITE - UPS. All other services not on this list can be posted in any fashion. GL!​

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Underachieving Favorites

There are no road favorites in the NFL this week, but the theme for the Week 8 card is the number of below .500 home favorites. Five clubs that have two wins or less are laying points, which begs the question if they are overlooked teams or sucker bets. We'll take a look at this quintet, starting with the rematch of Super Bowl XXIV at London's Wembley Stadium between two struggling clubs.

Broncos vs. Niners (-1, 42) - 1:00 PM EST

Two teams that were expected to do more at this point travel overseas in hopes of finding a victory in London. The Niners lost to previously winless Carolina last week, the third defeat for San Francisco this season as a road favorite. The cellar-dwellers of the NFC West have changed out one Smith (Alex) for another (Troy) at quarterback as the former Heisman Trophy winner from Ohio State will get the start this Sunday.

The Broncos won't be let off the hook for probably the most embarrassing loss all season in the NFL, allowing 59 points to the inconsistent Raiders in a 45-point home setback. Denver had to be feeling like it was turning the corner following a last-minute loss to the Jets, but Josh McDaniels' squad is just 5-12 ATS since starting 6-0 last season. The Broncos have been the league's best 'over' team, cashing it in six of seven games.

The Niners are 0-5 ATS and 1-4 SU as a favorite this season, including outright losses to the Seahawks, Chiefs, Panthers, and Eagles. San Francisco has lost four games by three points or less, while scoring 20 points or less five times this season. Both teams rank in the bottom six of the league in rushing offense, but the Niners will look to slow down Denver's ineffective ground game that is averaging just 68.4 yards/game.

Jaguars at Cowboys (-6½, 42½) - 1:00 PM EST

Dallas was in big trouble before Monday night's 41-35 home defeat to New York, sending the Cowboys down to 1-5. Wade Phillips' team found themselves in hot water when Tony Romo broke his left collarbone in the second quarter, as the Cowboys squandered a 20-7 lead with the Giants scoring 31 unanswered points in one span. Dallas looks to turn things around when another struggling club in Jacksonville invades Cowboys Stadium.

The Jags have lost two straight in ugly fashion following consecutive wins over the Colts and Bills. Jacksonville will get David Garrard back under center after missing the Kansas City loss with a concussion. The Jags are 4-10 ATS since November 2008 as a road underdog, including a 1-5 ATS run since a last-minute victory over the Jets last season.

The Cowboys are 0-4 SU/ATS as a favorite, including three losses at home. However, Dallas has bounced back nicely following a poor defensive performance as the Cowboys own a 9-0 ATS mark since 2005 after allowing 35 points or more in their last game. Dallas had outgained each of its first five opponents before allowing New York to rack up 497 yards, including 200 yards on the ground.

Redskins at Lions (-3, 45) - 1:00 PM EST

Washington is listed as an underdog for the seventh time this season, but the Redskins keep finding a way to cash following last Sunday's 17-14 victory at Chicago. Mike Shanahan's team is 4-2-1 ATS, while being involved in six games decided by six points or less. The Lions come in off the bye week going for their second straight home victory after dumping the Rams, 44-6 in Week 5.

Detroit has been great to backers this season from a pointspread standpoint by covering five of six games. The only ATS defeat came at Minnesota in Week 3 as the Lions fell short of a cover by losing 24-10 as 13-point 'dogs. Being listed as a favorite is very rare for Detroit, who is 3-7-1 ATS since 2006, including the blowout victory of St. Louis as three-point 'chalk.'

The Redskins have been outgained in all seven games, but have found a way to hang around thanks to their defense allowing 14 or less points in three of their last four contests. Washington was knocked off at Ford Field last season as 6 ½-point road favorites, falling to Detroit, 19-14, as the Lions snapped a 19-game losing streak dating back to 2007.

Dolphins at Bengals (-2, 43½)- 1:00 PM EST

Miami is still seething after the disputed Ben Roethlisberger fumble in a 23-22 home loss to Pittsburgh. Following Big Ben's fumble, the ball was placed at the one-yard line resulting in a field goal, even though the officials weren't sure who recovered the ball in the end zone. Despite the Dolphins covering as three-point 'dogs, Miami sits at 3-3 as it heads north to Cincinnati to take on the struggling Bengals.

Cincinnati rallied from a 24-3 deficit to take a 25-24 lead at Atlanta last Sunday, but the Falcons scored 15 unanswered points to win the game, 39-32. The Bengals look to snap a three-game skid, as Marvin Lewis' team is 0-7 ATS the last seven games as a home favorite. To make matters worse for the Bengals, Cincinnati is 3-15-1 ATS as home 'chalk' under Lewis after allowing 20 points or more, including the Week 5 setback to Tampa Bay.

The Dolphins continue to be an odd team to figure out, winning all three road games at Green Bay, Minnesota, and Buffalo. Under Tony Sparano, Miami is 12-3 ATS as an away underdog, including the victories over the Packers and Vikings. The secondary will be tested against Chad Ochocinco and Terrell Owens, as the Dolphins have allowed opposing quarterbacks to throw for seven touchdowns and one interception the last four games.

Titans at Chargers (-3½, 44½) - 4:15 PM EST

The defending AFC West champions have fallen to 2-5 out of the gate and it doesn't look like the Chargers are getting up. San Diego suffered its first home loss of the season with a 23-20 setback to New England, despite limiting the Patriots to 179 yards. The Chargers have outgained opponents in six of seven games, but the inability to score touchdowns in big spots has put this team in last place of the AFC West.

On the flip side, the Titans continue to impress with three straight wins, while scoring at least 30 points in each victory. There is no reason to underestimate Tennessee, who has tallied 29 points or more five times, even though Kerry Collins and Vince Young have shared time at quarterback. The Titans have taken care of business in two opportunities as an underdog with victories at the Giants and Cowboys, despite getting outgained by at least 190 yards in each game.

The Bolts have normally started slow under Norv Turner, but with November looming, this team needs victories. San Diego sits 2 ½ games behind Kansas City in the division race, as the Chargers have covered just two of seven games this season. The Chargers are 8-5 ATS in Turner's three-year tenure at home off a loss, including a 2-1 ATS mark this season.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Las Vegas Money Moves

More Favre Drama

Brett Favre is walking around Vikings headquarters on Thursday without his protective boot on and appearing to have no limp whatsoever. Reporters and team officials are all amazed at the speedy recovery from two fractures that occurred just last Sunday night at Green Bay. Vikings coach Brad Childress now looks like he doesn’t have the daunting task of telling Favre he has to sit, so in the process, now Favre can extend his cherished NFL record to 292 consecutive starts this week at New England.

What does that mean to the Las Vegas sportsbooks in regards to the line? Absolutely nothing!

A few books have kept the game off the board this week until hearing more information on the injury, while other books have used the key word of “fractured ankle“ as enough info to comfortably keep up a line. Prior to the injury, the Patriots would have been 4-point favorites. With the injury, the Patriots went to -5 and -6 at the Las Vegas Hilton Super Book. Over at the Mirage, when the alert came out that Favre was ‘probable,’ the Patriots went to -6 ½ and -7 (-105) as people are betting more favorably on the Patriots now that the injured Favre is playing.

Hilton Race and Sports Executive Director Jay Kornegay believes that the Favre we’ll see this week will be a shadow of his former self.

“You’re looking at a Favre that’s maybe 80% this week of what he’s been this year so far. We’re essentially getting a Brett FAV this week,” Kornegay said jokingly leaving the “R” and “E” out in a reference to the diluted product the Vikings will have on the field this week.

It’s very probable that his entire show, without the boot on, for everyone to see Thursday was an attempt to garner support in his attempt to start game No. 292. It‘s like he‘s saying, “Hey everyone, look at me, I’m healthy....no limp, see.”

Why else would someone with a fractured ankle take off the boot until game day?

Based on the relative quiet nature of the line movement around town, it’s apparent that most books believe Favre’s ankle is not game ready.

Las Vegas Sports Consultants Odds Director Tony Sinisi sent the Favre probable alert to their clients with a recommendation of Patriots -6 ½.

“We’re treating this like a Favre “out” number,” said Sinisi. “Favre is going to be physically immobile and I expect their game plan to reflect that, taking much out of what Favre brings to the equation in a normal game out of this one.”

Sinisi also said he expects to see a bigger role this week out of running back Adrian Peterson.

That could be good news for Vikings supporters this week. Peterson routinely gets left out of plays called for him as Favre greedily audibles his own plays. A little less Favre and more Peterson could be just what the Vikings need to be competitive this week. Fourteen turnovers by Favre through six games isn’t acceptable for any NFL quarterback, not even a gimpy Favre.

A wounded, ego driven Favre, who is showing signs of his age, should do the right thing and sit after he takes the first series of snaps to keep his streak alive. Or better yet, just sit and allow backup Tavares Jackson to start the game and show his team that it’s not all about him and his personal records. But that surely won’t happen, because in Favre's eyes, it is all about him and no one else.

Cowboys Might Be Done Without Romo

There are other games of interest this week that don’t quite involve the drama of Favre, but have a much bigger impact than him in regards to the spreads beginning with QB Tony Romo and the Cowboys. Dallas would have been an 11-point favorite with Romo playing this week against Jacksonville, but are now -6 ½ almost everywhere with him ‘out.’

We saw the Cowboys look miserable in 2008 when Romo missed three games going 1-2 with Brad Johnson at the helm, but I honestly believe John Kitna will perform better than that. I have a feeling that Kitna may even make the Cowboys a better, more balanced offensive attack, something we haven’t seen all year from Dallas.

Dallas definitely needs a boost of some kind and if they aren’t willing to fire Wade Phillips, the quarterback is a good place to start. Granted, Romo puts up good numbers in the box score, but the box score doesn’t reflect the timing of his bad decisions. When the Cowboys need Romo at his best in key moments this season, he has faltered. Laying the points looks like a good deal against the Jaguars 30th ranked defense.

49ers Start A New Mr. Smith

The San Francisco 49ers are 1-point favorites over Denver in their game being played at Wembley Stadium in London. The 49ers will start Troy Smith this week against a shamed Broncos squad coming off a 59-14 beat down, on their home field, against the hated Raiders. Or maybe the Raiders aren’t hated anymore. Maybe Denver’s instilled hate for Oakland and their history against each other left with Mike Shanahan.

This week’s line is definitely a reflection of that blowout loss. The 49ers starting Troy Smith over David Carr while Alex Smith mends baffled many, but Jay Kornegay saw coach Mike Singletary’s logic in it.

“I was initially surprised, but I think Troy Smith’s mobility and similarities to Alex Smith’s game was the deciding factor and they can game plan similarly rather than change so much to accommodate Carr's style, “ said Kornegay. “David Carr just can’t move. My past memories of him playing, sad to say, are being sacked and turning the ball over.“

Kornegay leans towards the Broncos in this one stating that their last game was something that was a just a freak happening.

“Denver has been very consistent against every team they played up until last week and have played some of their best ball away from Mile High stadium.”

Other NFL Moves

The Lions welcome back QB Matt Stafford this week and have been bet up from 2-point opening favorites to -2 ½ against the Redskins.

The Packers have found supporters coming off their big Sunday night win over the Vikings. The rested Jets opened as a 6 ½-point favorite and have been bet against to -6.

The Dolphins have found some believers in their road performances after going 3-0 thus year as they roll into Cincinnati. The Bengals opened a short 2 ½-point favorite and are down to -2.

San Diego still has some faithful out there that believe they are still very good at home as they moved from a -3 (even) to -3 ½ against the Titans. QB Vince Young is expected to play for the Titans, but maybe that’s why the bets came in.

The Saints resorted back to their old ways in a home loss to Cleveland last week. Following their Week 6 win (31-6) at Tampa Bay, many us thought the Saints had figured it all out and they’d go on a run like they did in 2009, but the Browns said not so fast. This week they opened pick’em at home against the Steelers and have been bet up to -1 ½. Maybe the Saints just aren’t that good and are about to experience the same fate that many Super Bowl Champs have had over the last decade where they don’t make the playoffs the next year.

The Colts get to avenge their loss to the Texans with a rematch at home. They opened as 5-point favorites and have been bet to -5 ½. I’ll side with Houston in this one just because of the key injuries the Colts have to deal with. How will Peyton Manning fare without his faithful and reliable outlet of Dallas Clark. He’ll also be without Austin Collie, Joseph Addai and probably Donald Brown too.

Since it’s a dead number, the best strategy is to wait until Monday to bet. Between the public loving the Colts and extended parlay risk coming from Sunday’s games, the Colts popularity and incurred liability figure to force a move higher. Don’t wait too long on Monday though, because if the Sharps like it, the game will go to -4 just because -5 and -5 ½ is a quick number to move off of not requiring full limit bets to move.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL DUNKEL INDEX

Seattle at Oakland
The Seahawks look to take advantage of an Oakland team that is 0-11 ATS in its last 11 games as a home favorite. Seattle is the pick (+3) according to Dunkel, which has the Raiders favored by only 1. Dunkel Pick: Seattle (+3). Here are all of this week's picks.

SUNDAY, OCTOBER 31

Game 207-208: Denver at San Francisco (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Denver 129.904; San Francisco 130.374
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1; 37
Vegas Line: Denver by 1; 41 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (+1); Under

Game 209-210: Jacksonville at Dallas (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Jacksonville 122.825; Dallas 135.347
Dunkel Line: Dallas by 12 1/2; 46
Vegas Line: Dallas by 6 1/2; 42 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Dallas (-6 1/2); Over

Game 211-212: Washington at Detroit (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 132.920; Detroit 130.644
Dunkel Line: Washington by 2 1/2; 47
Vegas Line: Detroit by 3; 44
Dunkel Pick: Washington (+3); Over

Game 213-214: Green Bay at NY Jets (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Green Bay 132.891; NY Jets 143.282
Dunkel Line: NY Jets by 10 1/2; 40
Vegas Line: NY Jets by 5 1/2; 42 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Jets (-5 1/2); Under

Game 215-216: Carolina at St. Louis (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Carolina 124.384; St. Louis 129.896
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 5 1/2; 40
Vegas Line: St. Louis by 3; 37
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-3); Over

Game 217-218: Miami at Cincinnati (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Miami 130.862; Cincinnati 131.405
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 1; 38
Vegas Line: Cincinnati by 2 1/2; 43 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Miami (+2 1/2); Under

Game 219-220: Buffalo at Kansas City (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Buffalo 122.595; Kansas City 134.702
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 12; 48
Vegas Line: Kansas City by 7 1/2; 44 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (-7 1/2); Over

Game 221-222: Tennessee at San Diego (4:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tennessee 138.060; San Diego 132.915
Dunkel Line: Tennessee by 5; 41
Vegas Line: San Diego by 4; 44
Dunkel Pick: Tennessee (+4); Under

Game 223-224: Tampa Bay at Arizona (4:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay 125.499; Arizona 126.992
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 1 1/2; 41
Vegas Line: Arizona by 3; 39 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (+3); Over

Game 225-226: Seattle at Oakland (4:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle 127.139; Oakland 128.306
Dunkel Line: Oakland by 1; 40
Vegas Line: Oakland by 3; 41 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (+3); Under

Game 227-228: Minnesota at New England (4:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 134.562; New England 141.012
Dunkel Line: New England by 6 1/2; 42
Vegas Line: New England by 5; 44
Dunkel Pick: New England (-5); Under

Game 229-230: Pittsburgh at New Orleans (8:20 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh 136.927; New Orleans 134.595
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 1 1/2; 46
Vegas Line: New Orleans by 1; 44
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (+1); Over


MONDAY, NOVEMBER 1

Game 231-232: Houston at Indianapolis (8:35 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Houston 129.397; Indianapolis 139.920
Dunkel Line: Indianapolis by 10 1/2; 45
Vegas Line: Indianapolis by 5 1/2; 49 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Indianapolis (-5 1/2); Under

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL Week 8 games

Broncos (2-5) vs. 49ers (1-6) (@ London)—Two disappointing teams cross pond to showcase the NFL. Since starting last year 6-0, Broncos are now 4-13 in last 17 games- they were down 38-0 at home to Oakland last week, less than a minute into 2nd quarter. 49ers have 31 penalties for 292 yards in last three games; their only win came in rain against Raider team that just blitzed Denver. Teams split 12 series games, with average total in last six, 51.8. NFC West teams are 10-8 vs. spread in non-division games, 4-6 on road; AFC West teams are 9-12, 4-7 on road. Niners are 6-2-1 vs spread in last nine games vs AFC teams, but 3-14-3 in last 20 games where spread was 3 or less points. Six of seven Denver games went over the total.

Jaguars (3-4) @ Cowboys (1-6)—Kitna gets first start since ’08 here, subbing for injured Romo, with untested McGee only backup as this is written. Cowboys are a trainwreck, losing last three games, allowing 33 ppg (11 TDs on 35 drives; they’re 0-3 at home and 0-4 SU when favored this year. Jaguars were outscored 72-23 in losing last two games; all four of their losses are by 22+ points- they allowed 26+ points in each of last six games. NFC East teams are 4-6 as non-divisional favorites; AFC south road dogs are 3-2 outside the division. Home side won three of four series games, with average total 42.3; Jags lost two of three visits here, with losses by 4-2 points. Over is 5-2 in Jacksonville games, 4-1 in last five Dallas games.

Redskins (4-3) @ Lions (1-5)—Washington’s last three games were all decided by 3 points; only one of their games this year was decided by more than 6 points- underdogs are 5-1-1 in Redskin games this year, with dog winning SU in all three Washington road games. Detroit was outscored 51-17 in losing its two post-bye games under Schwartz; they’re 5-1 vs spread in ’10, 1-0 as favorite, crushing Rams 44-6, same Ram team that beat the Redskins. Detroit is 3-4 in last seven series games, after losing previous 22 games to Redskins; Skins are 2-3 in last five visits here, as home side won 10 of last 12 series games. Average total in last five series games is 32.8. Four of last five Detroit games went over total; three of last four Redskin games stayed under.

Packers (4-3) @ Jets (5-1)—Well-rested Jets won five games in row before bye, scoring 30 ppg (16 TDs, 12 FGs on 57 drives); now they face Packer squad whose last four games were all decided by 4 or less points, and are coming off emotional primetime home game vs rival Vikings. All three Green Bay losses this year are by 3 points. Pack allowed 150-196 rushing yards in last two games, good news for Jets, who run ball for average of 150.7 yards/game. Rodgers wasn’t sacked by Vikings, after he’d been sacked nine times in previous two games. Jets are 8-2 in series, winning last two 42-17/38-10- they won all four games played here by 25-2-3-25 points. NFC North underdogs are 4-2-1 vs spread outside the division. Last five Jet games went over the total.

Panthers (1-5) @ Rams (3-4)—Rams are 3-0 if they average more than 5.0 yards/pass attempt, 0-4 if they don’t; four of six Panther opponents averaged over 5.0 ypa. St Louis is favored for first time since Week 13 in ’07; they’ve won last three home games (Redskins-Seahawks-Chargers), holding those teams to 9-44 on 3rd down, but have been unproductive (too conservative) in second half of last three games, outscored 46-3. Carolina got first win last week with Moore back at QB; they’re 0-2 on road, losing 31-18 at Giants (+7), 16-14 at Saints (+13). Panthers are even in turnovers last three games, after being -10 in first three- they’ve been outscored 61-27 in first half of last five games. Under is 5-2 in Ram games this year, 4-1 in last five Carolina games.

Dolphins (3-3) @ Bengals (2-4)—Miami is 3-0 on road ( Vikings-Packers-Bills), 0-3 at home (Jets-Pats-Steelers); four of their six games were decided by five or less points, with last two decided by total of 4 points (dogs covered their last five games). Bengals lost last three games, allowing 28.7 ppg (nine TD’s on 32 drives); since 2007, they’re 3-7 as favorite of 3 or less points. Miami is 11-7 vs spread in last 18 games where spread was 3 or less points. In last two games, Fish have only one TD on five red zone drives. Cincy won last two series meetings, after losing 13 of previous 16; their last loss to Miami was 10 years ago. Last three Cincinnati games and three of last four Miami games all went over the total.

Bills (0-6) @ Chiefs (4-2)—Buffalo led 24-10 in 1st half, outgained Ravens 506-364 last week, but came up empty after turning ball over in OT for 4th time in game; they’re 2-1 as road dog this year (9-6 since 2008), losing away games 34-7 (+13) in Green Bay, 38-30 (+14) in Foxboro, 37-34 in OT (+13)in Baltimore. In last two road games, Bills have six TD’s, five FG’s on 21 drives, which ain’t bad. Home team won 10 of last 13 series games, with Buffalo winning last three, taking 54-31/16-10 decisions the last two years. Chiefs are 3-0 at home, scoring 31.3 ppg (11 TD’s on 34 drives); they covered as home favorite last week, after being 0-6-1 as HF since start of ’07 season. Last four Buffalo games and three of last four Chief games went over the total.

Titans (5-2) @ Chargers (2-5)—Resourceful Tennessee won last three games, scoring 34-30-37 points, scoring last 27 points vs Philly last week (won 37-19), even with backup QB Collins playing whole game; they’ve had 2+ takeaways in each of their five wins, one in each loss. Chargers are nothing if not self-destructive, turning ball over 17 times in last six games (-8 in last three). Bolts lost last three games, allowing 26 ppg. Titans are 3-0 on road with wins at Giants-Dallas-Jags. San Diego has won last seven series games, with four of last five wins by 11+ points. Titans lost last four visits here by average score of 28-12. Chargers are 9-14-1 in last 24 games as single digit fave. Three of last four Tennessee games went over the total.

Buccaneers (4-2) @ Cardinals (3-3)—Home team won last four series games, with Bucs losing last two visits here, 13-9/12-7; average total in last seven series games is 24.6 (19.5 in last four played here). Tampa Bay allowed 38-31 points in its two losses; they were down 17-3 at half last week, rallied at home to beat Rams- they’re 2-0 on road, beating Panthers (20-7, +3), Bengals (24-21, +7). Bucs gave up average of 180.8 rushing yards/game in last four games, so Beanie Wells could have big day, taking heat off whichever overmatched QB Redbirds use. Arizona had four takeaways in two of its three wins (Oakland missed chip shot FG for win at gun of other win). Bucs were outscored 72-19 in first half of their last four games. Four of last five Arizona games went over.

Seahawks (4-2) @ Raiders (3-4)—You can tell early with Seattle; they were outscored 27-3 in first half of their two losses, outscored other foes 48-19 before halftime. 3rd down defense has also been a key; their foes were 21-36 on 3rd down in Seattle’s two losses, 9-53 in their four wins. Oakland is 18-44 (40.9%) on 3rd down in their three home games. Raiders led 38-0 in first minute of 2nd quarter last week in Denver, they’re 2-1 at home, failing to cover only try as favorite (0-11 as home favorite since Week 7 in ’05). Home side won last nine series games in what used to be division rivalry; Seattle lost last five visits here by average of 16 points. Seattle scored 22+ points in its four wins, allowing four TD’s on 48 drives, 31-20 in its losses.

Vikings (2-4) @ Patriots (5-1)—Favre has two breaks in ankle, unproductive Jackson would get start at QB for Vikings if #4 can’t go, in what is Moss’ return to Foxboro, after he talked his way out of town. Patriots won last four games, scoring 31.3 ppg- they’re 3-0 at home (1-1-1 as home fave), scoring average of 33 ppg (10 TD’s, five FG on 31 drives. Vikings have 8 TD’s on 32 drives in last three games (had 5 of 33 in first three), but they don’t have sack in last two games (foes 15-28 on 3rd down). Home team won six of eight series games, with Vikings 2-4 in six visits here. AFC East teams are 8-3-1 vs spread in non-division games (2-2-1 as home favorite); NFC North teams are 4-2-1 as an underdog in non-divisional games. Last three Minnesota games went over the total.

Steelers (5-1) @ Saints (4-3)—Super Bowl champs allowed 27-30-30 points in three losses, 22 or less in four wins; offense has coughed ball up 11 times in the losses, with four of the 11 being run back for TD’s (they’ve had 3 turnovers in four wins). Saints expected to get Bush back for this, making offense more diverse, but Steelers allowing just 63.8 rushing yards/game this season. This is first of only three Steeler games on carpet this year. Pitt is 14-8 vs spread in last 22 games vs NFC teams. Saints were +5 in turnovers in first two games, are -10 since, and have only one INT in last five games. Four of last six games in infrequently-played series were decided by 4 or less points, with average total in last three, 60.3. Three of last four Steeler games went over the total.

Texans (4-2) @ Colts (4-2)—First rematch of season has Indy trying to avenge 34-24 loss in Week 1, just Texans’ second win in 17 series games; Houston is 0-8 here, losing 33-27/20-17 in last two visits. Houston had 257 rushing yards in opener, converting 6-11 on 3rd down as they scored four TD’s on nine drives. Both teams had bye last week; Texans are 1-4 in last five post-bye games, Colts won/covered their last five, but season-ending injury to TE Clark (wrist) will hamper Indy aerial attack, which had 419 yards in opener. Home favorites in divisional games are just 4-13 vs spread this season. Indy is 2-0 as home favorite this year (won 38-14/19-9 vs. two first-place teams). Texans are 2-0 on road, winning at Washington/Oakland. Average total in Texans’ last seven visits here is 53.9.

Over last six weeks, underdogs are 52-34 (60.5%) against the spread.
Over is 53-35 (60.2%) over the same time period

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Jason Sharpe

Take #220 Kansas City (-7.5) over Buffalo (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 31)
The Kansas City Chiefs have been a huge moneymaker so far this season, going 5-1 ATS and are now 7-1 ATS dating back to last season. Kansas City has always had one of the biggest home field advantages in the NFL having gone 23-11 ATS when favored at home in the -3.5 to -10 range. They are 4-2 and alone in first place currently in the AFC West and are only a few plays away from possibly being 6-0 this season. The Bills still haven't notched a win and are the only winless team left in the NFL this year. They let their best shot slip through their fingers last week losing in overtime at Baltimore to the Ravens, 37-34. It was a tough loss for the Bills, who came into the game off a bye week, well rested and ready to get the winless monkey off their backs. Buffalo has really struggled against the better teams of late, going just 6-13 ATS when playing teams with a winning record like the Chiefs bring into this one.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

HRC PREMIUM NFL ACTION-October 31st

Capper: JSM Sports (Handicappers Paradise)

Play Strengths
*****************
2* Action
5* Selection (Rated)
8* Premium (Rated)
10* Premium (Rated)
15* Diamond (Rated)
******************

[218] Cincinnati |Bet B|OPEN -1.5|B+0|CBS|1:00 pm EST

[213] Green Bay |Bet A|OPEN +6.5|B+1/2|FOX|1:00 pm EST

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Teddy Covers


20* SEAHAWKS

10*'s
Chiefs over
Chargers
Cardinals

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Tim Trushel

20* NFL Game of the Year
NEW ORLEANS

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Prediction Machine

NFL
Pitt pk
Tampa +3
NE -5.5
Indy -5.5

 

[dettim]

NFL WEEK #8

WAS +2.5NYJ -6.0MIA +1.5TEN +3.5NE -5.5PIT PICKEMHOU +5.5OVER 50.0

GL Guys,
Det Tim

 

[AC2008]

football jesus text earlier this week Saints PK or +1, ( sorry i couldnt post earlier but thread wasnt up yet>> he gives picks very early in the week when sharps bet)

 

[pizza]

AL DEMARCO on philly daily news live

DENVER +1`
LIONS -2`
CHIEFS -7`

JETS -6 best bet

lost all plays last week

 

[CHANCE]

David Blezow (NY Post)
Weekly Locks (1-6)
Week 8: RAMS

TOP 3 BEST BETS: (5-15-1)
Week 8: RAMS / KC / ARIZ

 

[CHANCE]

Hilton contest
top 5 selections:
Nor / det / miami / tenn / houst

top play is (4-2-1 ats): Nor

======================

top 3 contestants
(25-9-1): Det / miami / seatt / minn / hstn
(24-9-2): Sf / det / sd / minn / nor
(24-9-2): Dnvr / det / stl / miami / nor


bottom 2 contestants
(9-24-2): Dall / nyj / tb / pitt / indy
(10-23-2): Det / nyj / miami / oak / minn

4 of top 5 contestants have detroit
3 of top 5 have minn
6 of top 9 have nor

gl --

 

[goingallin]

paid and confirmed, hittingpaydirt has a premium selection on detroit lions moneyline -135. he has 3 premium plays tomorrow but only purchased 1. if anyone gets the others, please post.

GL

 

[lovetogamble]

Wunderdog NFL 10/31/10


Game: Denver vs. San Francisco (Sunday 10/31 1:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: Total OVER 42 -110

Game: Jacksonville at Dallas (Sunday 10/31 1:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: Jacksonville +6.5 (-110)
Pick: Game Total OVER 43

Game: Miami at Cincinnati (Sunday 10/31 1:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: Miami +1.5 (-110)

Game: Washington at Detroit (Sunday 10/31 1:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: Detroit -2.5 (-120)

Game: Green Bay at New York Jets (Sunday 10/31 1:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: Green Bay +6
Pick: Total UNDER 43

Game: Carolina at St. Louis (Sunday 10/31 1:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: Carolina +3 (-120)
Pick: Game Total OVER 37 -110

Game: Buffalo at Kansas City (Sunday 10/31 1:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: Buffalo +7.5 (-110)

Game: Tennessee at San Diego (Sunday 10/31 4:05 PM Eastern)
Pick: Tennessee +3.5 (-110)

Game: Minnesota at New England (Sunday 10/31 4:15 PM Eastern)
Pick: Minnesota +6 (-110)
Pick: Total OVER 44 -110

Game: Tampa Bay at Arizona (Sunday 10/31 4:15 PM Eastern)
Pick: Tampa Bay +3.5 (-120)

 

[mjag21]

Dr. Bob
No best bets... 3 strong opinions
I’ll consider Carolina a Strong Opinion at +3 points or more.
I’ll consider Minnesota a Strong Opinion at +4 points or more and I’d take the Vikings in a 2-Star Best Bet at +7 points or more.
I’ll consider Houston a Strong Opinion at +4 points or more and I’d take the Texans in a 2-Star Best Bet at +7 or more.

 

[dettim]

NFL WEEK #8

STL -3.0

GL Guys,
Det Tim​

 

[TinyBubbles]

The Boss

500% untouchable play San Diego
300% bookie buster parlay Kansas city, ny jets, San diego
200% dog pound Washington
100% silent assassins undercarolina, overhouston, overseattle